The RAMS Forum

I read somewhere that we may lose the Division tie breaker to the Cards due to Common Opponents.

We have 2 more division games and the Cards have just 1. Can we tie and still win the division?

If somehow SEA beats AZ and our record is tied with AZ (both overall and within the division) then it goes to common opponents, etc....so mathematically I suppose we could still win the NFCW

Realistically, I think the only way to win the West is if we win out and AZ loses 2 out of the next 4....

Rampage927 wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 10:23 am I read somewhere that we may lose the Division tie breaker to the Cards due to Common Opponents.

We have 2 more division games and the Cards have just 1. Can we tie and still win the division?

No cards own the tie breaker. I believe the rams lose the tie breaker against same opponents.

Win out for the Rams which is doable. Cards can lose to the Cowboys and Colts. Looming though is the Pack might be the team with home field so any path to the Super Bowl probably goes thru Lambeau. Packers have to be considered the favorites to go at this point unless they stumble down the stretch

We will win the tie breaker with the Cards If we win out and they lose to the Hags... via Conference record...
It's all moot as far as finishing 1st in the Conference

The 10-3 Bucs have the Saints, Jets and 2 with the Panthers left and, all pretty much done.... I don't see a loss there.

GB have the Ravens, Browns, Vikes and Det and a hurting AR12 and talk that he may have to sit out one or more of their remaining games
I don't see the Pack winning out playing 3 teams still in the playoff hunt...

Rams need to win out plus the above scenario with the Cards, 2 Losses by GB, 1 by TB and 1 by Dallas because of their 7-1 conference record...
Not happening but the Division can...

We need to win out and have the Cards lose to the Colts and Cowboys.

Not impossible, but not sure I'd call it likely.

BrooklynRam74 wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 11:05 am

Rampager66 wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 11:02 am We will win the tie breaker with the Cards If we win out and they lose to the Hags... via Conference record...
It's all moot as far as finishing 1st in the Conference

The 10-3 Bucs have the Saints, Jets and 2 with the Panthers left and, all pretty much done.... I don't see a loss there.

GB have the Ravens, Browns, Vikes and Det and a hurting AR12 and talk that he may have to sit out one or more of their remaining games
I don't see the Pack winning out playing 3 teams still in the playoff hunt...

Rams need to win out plus the above scenario with the Cards, 2 Losses by GB, 1 by TB and 1 by Dallas because of their 7-1 conference record...
Not happening but the Division can...

Actually, Common Games is the tie-breaker after Division record and BEDORE Conference record and Ariz has the edge on us as of now.

oh... Ok!

We definitely need the Cardinals to lose at least 1 more game than we do over the remaining 4 games. As I understand it if the Cardinals loss is to a divisional opponent we'll have the tie-breaker. If their loss is outside the division they'll have the tie-breaker and we would need them to have another loss. To be honest I don't think last night's win will ultimately help us, and ironically it might have hurt us. I'm not going to mess around with playoff machines until after Week 15.

flv wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 11:16 am We definitely need the Cardinals to lose at least 1 more game than we do over the remaining 4 games. As I understand it if the Cardinals loss is to a divisional opponent we'll have the tie-breaker. If their loss is outside the division they'll have the tie-breaker and we would need them to have another loss. To be honest I don't think last night's win will ultimately help us, and ironically it might have hurt us. I'm not going to mess around with playoff machines until after Week 15.

How would a game that we really needed to perform well and win or be mentally devastated for probably the remainder of the year been a good thing? The press would have added to that devastation...
Now we have a swagger back and could end up 13-4...
I don't care about match-ups either... we'll just have to take down whoever is in front of us no matter who or where it is to be champs. I don't see how losing last night would have made anything better...
Sorry bro!

BrooklynRam74 wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 11:31 am

Rampager66 wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 11:26 am How would a game that we really needed to perform well and win or be mentally devastated for probably the remainder of the year been a good thing? The press would have added to that devastation...
Now we have a swagger back and could end up 13-4...
I don't care about match-ups either... we'll just have to take down whoever is in front of us no matter who or where it is to be champs. I don't see how losing last night would have made anything better...
Sorry bro!

Last nights win may have "hurt" us.

That's awesome dude....

Yes I agree. Very special

Rampager66 wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 11:26 amHow would a game that we really needed to perform well and win or be mentally devastated for probably the remainder of the year been a good thing? The press would have added to that devastation...
Now we have a swagger back and could end up 13-4...
I don't care about match-ups either... we'll just have to take down whoever is in front of us no matter who or where it is to be champs. I don't see how losing last night would have made anything better...
Sorry bro!

I'd explain but your position is "I don't care about match-ups either... we'll just have to take down whoever is in front of us", so there's no point.

It was a great win but I think our path is still to the wild card. I don't think Ari loses 2 more and i'm pretty sure that this is what it would take.

BrooklynRam74 wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 11:31 am

Rampager66 wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 11:26 am How would a game that we really needed to perform well and win or be mentally devastated for probably the remainder of the year been a good thing? The press would have added to that devastation...
Now we have a swagger back and could end up 13-4...
I don't care about match-ups either... we'll just have to take down whoever is in front of us no matter who or where it is to be champs. I don't see how losing last night would have made anything better...
Sorry bro!

Last nights win may have "hurt" us.

That's awesome dude....

Yeah I don't get that either....

flv wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 11:38 am

Rampager66 wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 11:26 amHow would a game that we really needed to perform well and win or be mentally devastated for probably the remainder of the year been a good thing? The press would have added to that devastation...
Now we have a swagger back and could end up 13-4...
I don't care about match-ups either... we'll just have to take down whoever is in front of us no matter who or where it is to be champs. I don't see how losing last night would have made anything better...
Sorry bro!

I'd explain but your position is "I don't care about match-ups either... we'll just have to take down whoever is in front of us", so there's no point.

I'd love to hear your reasoning nonetheless Bro.

DMRamFan wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 11:33 am Just thought about this...Here is how I see things...

Last 4 we have:
Hawks
@ Vikings
@ Ravens
49ers

We beat the Hawks Sunday.
We win in warm dome in Minnesota
Ravens are starting to stumble. Lamar injured, although he'll be back. We can take advantage of this game, but im 50/50 on who wins.
49ers, ERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR. We handle this game. Mark this down w a Win.

so, we end up at 3-1 on the last four. Cards will lose two more, we are tied. We maybe the biggest Seahawks fans EVER come Jan 9th.

Jan 9th could just be downright WILD.

We are going to smoke the niners.

toast49 wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 11:44 am

DMRamFan wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 11:33 am Just thought about this...Here is how I see things...

Last 4 we have:
Hawks
@ Vikings
@ Ravens
49ers

We beat the Hawks Sunday.
We win in warm dome in Minnesota
Ravens are starting to stumble. Lamar injured, although he'll be back. We can take advantage of this game, but im 50/50 on who wins.
49ers, ERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR. We handle this game. Mark this down w a Win.

so, we end up at 3-1 on the last four. Cards will lose two more, we are tied. We maybe the biggest Seahawks fans EVER come Jan 9th.

Jan 9th could just be downright WILD.

We are going to smoke the niners.

Yeah Baby!

BrooklynRam74 wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 12:03 pm

DMRamFan wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 11:59 am If the Cards lose to Detroit, hell will have been frozen over. Not going to happen.

That's what Minnesota said....

Just asking, what is the Mike Shad reference? are you him? do you know him? or are your complaining about the ist round draft pick on him way back when? I think it is that but I remember that he actually did ok afterwards on the Eagles.

BrooklynRam74 wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 12:13 pm

Rammer wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 12:10 pm Just asking, what is the Mike Shad reference? are you him? do you know him? or are your complaining about the ist round draft pick on him way back when? I think it is that but I remember that he actually did ok afterwards on the Eagles.

Hey Rammer. I actually went by the Mike Schad handle for years. It was to poke fun at my organization for spending a first-round pick on a guy we could have gotten in the 10th round or probably as a udfa. Only our Rams could use a first-round pick on a guy from a Canadian College. Joke

Yeah, I saw it for a long time. I always assumed it was a joke but never knew for sure. lol. I actually met the guy not that long ago. He seems nice enough. He is a mortgage guy in my area now. ---- I don't know why I remember this but when the eagles traded for him- they asked Buddy Ryan if he had passed a physical prior to the trade - his answer was something like - of course he did, who the frik do you think we are, the phillies?" It turned out they didn't give him a physical and was injured when he got here.

This team needs to stay healthy. Covid -19 appears to be our biggest opponent.

Not sure how we will prepare for Seattle remotely.

Claremontram wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 1:29 pm This team needs to stay healthy. Covid -19 appears to be our biggest opponent.

Not sure how we will prepare for Seattle remotely.

Luckily it's a opponent the rams know well and its a home game. If the rams can get the facility back up Thursday, they should be OK from a preparation standpoint.

Rampager66 wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 11:42 am I'd love to hear your reasoning nonetheless Bro.

Travel fatigue is real. The jet-lag effect of travelling East is very real. Back-to-back road games on the East Coast is almost impossible to overcome for Pacific or Mountain time teams. Historically Pacific and Mountain time teams are about .360 when they play the following week after 2 such regular season games...and the vast majority of those '3rd' games are at home against 'average' opponents. Here is a list of Pacific and Mountain time NFL teams who won back-to-back East Coast playoff games en route to a Super Bowl appearance:







... :(

Only 2 such teams have won back-to-back East Coast games. Both teams lost in the Championship game.

If the Rams don't win the division these are their 4 most realistic playoff routes to the Super Bowl. They are, in order from least to most difficult:

Wild-Card @Dallas, Green Bay, or Tampa Bay.
Divisional @ Arizona.
Championship @Dallas, Green Bay, or Tampa Bay.
Although very difficult this is the easiest and least travel influenced route.

Wild-Card @ Arizona.
Divisional @Dallas, Green Bay, or Tampa Bay.
Championship @Dallas, Green Bay, or Tampa Bay.
This back-to-back East Coast travel is the least impactful. It would require the Cardinals to be lower than #1 seed.

Wild-Card @Dallas, Green Bay, or Tampa Bay.
Divisional @Dallas, Green Bay, or Tampa Bay.
Championship @ Arizona.
Same back-to-back travel followed by a trip to the #1 seed. The Rams wouldn't recover in time to be competitive.

Wild-Card @Dallas, Green Bay, or Tampa Bay.
Divisional @Dallas, Green Bay, or Tampa Bay.
Championship @ Dallas, Green Bay, or Tampa Bay.
Not happening. Not going to overcome the travelling.

Beating the Cardinals means we still have an outside shot of winning the NFC West. However, footballoutsiders dot com rates our chances at just 12.4%, and even if we won the division we'd likely be the #3 or #4 seed. That would give us a Wild-Card game on the West Coast but we'd then face back-to-back East Coast games.

In most seasons there are 1, or possibly 2, team(s) everyone wants to avoid. I don't think that applies this year. I don't think there's much between any of the likely divisional winners and the team that will be best will be decided by form and player availability 4 and 5 weeks from now.

If I had the choice I would choose the top scenario regardless of which 2 East Coast teams the Rams had to play. This could happen with the #5 seed but it's more likely with the #7 seed. If the Cardinals were the #1 seed it wouldn't matter if we were the #5 or #6 seed, and resting players in the last 2 weeks to drop us down to #6 or #7 could have been advantageous. Winning in Week 14 has made this much more unlikely.

The 2nd scenario requires the Cardinals to be #2, #3, or #4 with the Rams the corresponding #7, #6, or #5 seed. It's very difficult to manipulate our record to achieve this and we are now more likely to end up with the 4th and most difficult route.

This doesn't mean I didn't want us to win last night. I did - regardless of the consequences. I'm just possibly a bit more aware of the consequences than some others.

DMRamFan wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 3:55 pm

flv wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 3:52 pm Travel fatigue is real. The jet-lag effect of travelling East is very real. Back-to-back road games on the East Coast is almost impossible to overcome for Pacific or Mountain time teams. Historically Pacific and Mountain time teams are about .360 when they play the following week after 2 such regular season games...and the vast majority of those '3rd' games are at home against 'average' opponents. Here is a list of Pacific and Mountain time NFL teams who won back-to-back East Coast playoff games en route to a Super Bowl appearance:

Oh no, here we go again. Please dont get some of our posters started about long flights again.

Last season is was nuts in here about all the plane rides (and you know who you are)...

Im not saying this isn't a real thing Flv, but last season, this board went bananas over this topic.

Frankly I think the real problem are those small bathrooms on the planes. Trying not to rip a loud one saps your energy big time. Doesn't bother me though, I just let it rip.

DMRamFan wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 3:55 pm Oh no, here we go again. Please dont get some of our posters started about long flights again.

Last season is was nuts in here about all the plane rides (and you know who you are)...

Im not saying this isn't a real thing Flv, but last season, this board went bananas over this topic.

I'll take your word for it as I wasn't here last year.
...no really!

I'm fine with travelling West. :hides:

flv wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 3:52 pm

Rampager66 wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 11:42 am I'd love to hear your reasoning nonetheless Bro.

Travel fatigue is real. The jet-lag effect of travelling East is very real. Back-to-back road games on the East Coast is almost impossible to overcome for Pacific or Mountain time teams. Historically Pacific and Mountain time teams are about .360 when they play the following week after 2 such regular season games...and the vast majority of those '3rd' games are at home against 'average' opponents. Here is a list of Pacific and Mountain time NFL teams who won back-to-back East Coast playoff games en route to a Super Bowl appearance:

Only 2 such teams have won back-to-back East Coast games. Both teams lost in the Championship game.

.

Thanks for the data .... Is one of those teams the 89 Rams?

They won WC weekend @ Philly and then won Divisional Round @ NYG and then lost @ SF in the NFC Champ.

Rampager66 wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 4:44 pm Thanks for the data .... Is one of those teams the 89 Rams?

They won WC weekend @ Philly and then won Divisional Round @ NYG and then lost @ SF in the NFC Champ.

I don't have the exact data to hand. From memory it was a 49ers team in the late 90's, and a Rams team in the late 80's.

toast49 wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 10:40 am Win out for the Rams which is doable. Cards can lose to the Cowboys and Colts. Looming though is the Pack might be the team with home field so any path to the Super Bowl probably goes thru Lambeau. Packers have to be considered the favorites to go at this point unless they stumble down the stretch

I'm looking for a Packers loss this upcoming weekend .Ravens have lost 2 straight. *high hoped*

DMRamFan wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 10:56 am

cdaly26 wrote: ↑December 14th, 2021, 10:29 am If somehow SEA beats AZ and our record is tied with AZ (both overall and within the division) then it goes to common opponents, etc....so mathematically I suppose we could still win the NFCW

Realistically, I think the only way to win the West is if we win out and AZ loses 2 out of the next 4....

Which actually wouldn't surprise me at all at this point if they did in fact lose 2 of 4 left... We pretty much just gave the blue print on how to beat them. Need to run a lot, contain and get in Kylers head and own TOP. Lot more as well, but that was my biggest takes on how to bear them.

Cards last 4 opponents:
@ Lions
Colts
@Cowboys
Hawks

I could see the Colts giving the trouble, I think they lose to the Cowboys and maybe even the Hawks. We are only one game behind right now.

Bottomline, we keep playing like last ngt... We win the Division imo.

Agree.....We have to win out and hope the Colts and Cowboys come up big. The Colt game is a home game for the Cards which is good and anything can happen at Dallas.

10-3 TB have 2 games left with the Panthers, @ Jets and vs Saints.
Brady doesn't generally lose to these kind of teams this time of year with it on the Line. Looks like 14-3 for them
I don't see another loss there for them that the Rams would need if they win out and get to 13-4. We do have the tiebreaker on them.

10-3 G.B. have @ Ravens, Vs Browns, vs Vikes and finish @ Lions
They are almost as banged up as the battered Ravens they face this week and the talk is AR night have to have the surgery now because his broken toe has worsened playing with it and not having it dealt with. If he has to sit a game or 2, they probably don't win out.... I don't think they will with him playing through it either.
And unlike TB who's opponents are all pretty much done, GB has to play 3 teams still right in the thick of the playoff hunt.
The Rams would need 2 losses here.... could happen but imo the 2 tougher games are @home...

10-3 Cards have @ Lions, Vs Colts, @ Cowboys, vs Hags... I can see 2 losses here, maybe 3. They have not been playing well for 4 weeks now and have fallen off almost as bad as the Rams did.... I don't believe they will be a factor in the playoffs, but that's just me..

9-4 Dallas have @ NYG, vs WFT, Vs Cards and @ Eagles. 1 loss would do it from them and it probably will happen. I think they'll finish 11-6 on the year.

So if the Rams can win out I have it finishing

TB 14-3
LAR 13-4
GB 12-5
Dal 11-6
Ari 12-5
SF 10-7
Phi 9-8

Just keep winning and everything else takes care of itself.